Gibbs has a slight edge at 1.01. He's more efficient per touch, scores more touchdowns, and Detroit just moved David Montgomery out of the backfield. Bijan is the safer volume play and the better pick if you value floor over ceiling. Either is a strong first pick. The real mistake is passing on both.
The Week That Reset the Running Back Market
For most of the summer, both players were in the same place: at camp, not practicing, waiting on new deals. Bijan attended practice on July 30 without taking part. Gibbs missed Detroit's first six practices. For fantasy managers drafting early, the hold-ins were a small but real cloud over the top of the board.
That cloud is gone. Here's what each player signed.
| Contract | Bijan Robinson (ATL) | Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| Agreed | Tuesday, Aug. 4 | Thursday, Aug. 6 |
| Length | 3-year extension | 3-year extension |
| Base Value | $66.75 million | $67.5 million |
| Max Value | Up to $75 million | Up to $75.75 million |
| Average Per Year | $22.25 million | $22.5 million |
| Guaranteed Money | $51 million | $51.5 million |
Bijan's deal briefly set the record for guaranteed money at the position. Two days later, Gibbs edged past him on every line and became the NFL's highest-paid running back. Gibbs was back at practice on Thursday, the same day his deal was reported.
For fantasy purposes, the dollar figures matter less than what they signal. Atlanta and Detroit just committed to these players as the centerpieces of their offenses for years to come. Neither team is paying a running back $22 million a year to split carries.
2025: Two Elite Seasons, Built Differently
Both backs played all 17 games last season, and both were elite. But they got there in very different ways.
| 2025 Stat | Bijan Robinson | Jahmyr Gibbs |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing | 287 carries, 1,478 yards, 7 TD | 243 carries, 1,223 yards, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 79 catches, 820 yards, 4 TD | 77 catches, 616 yards, 5 TD |
| Scrimmage Yards | 2,298 (led the NFL) | 1,839 |
| Total Touchdowns | 11 | 18 |
Bijan is the volume king. He led the league in scrimmage yards and earned a 20% target share, which is rare for a running back. He touches the ball constantly, as a runner and as a receiver.
Gibbs is the touchdown machine. He scored seven more touchdowns than Bijan on fewer touches, and that gap is why their fantasy point totals end up so close. FantasyLife's numbers had Bijan at 21.8 PPR points per game last season and Gibbs at 21.6. That's essentially a tie, produced by two very different profiles.
The Efficiency Argument for Gibbs
CBS Sports' Douglas Clawson made the case for Gibbs at 1.01 in late July, and his numbers are hard to ignore. Over the last two seasons combined, Gibbs scored 729.8 PPR points on 622 touches, about 1.17 points per touch. Bijan scored 712.5 points on 731 touches, about 0.97 per touch.
Put another way, Gibbs produced more fantasy points while touching the ball 109 fewer times. Over three seasons, Clawson had Gibbs ahead 971.9 to 958.8.
Efficiency matters because it means Gibbs has room to grow. Bijan is already near the top of the league in workload. Gibbs isn't, and that's where Detroit's offseason comes in.
The Montgomery Factor
The biggest change in this debate happened in Detroit. David Montgomery, Gibbs' backfield partner, was traded to the Texans this offseason. That removes the back who had been taking a meaningful share of Detroit's carries.
The Lions brought in Isiah Pacheco, but Gibbs just signed a deal that says he's the guy. If Gibbs takes even part of Montgomery's old workload, his ceiling goes up.
There's evidence for that, too. FantasyLife found that Gibbs averaged 27.4 PPR points per game in six career games without Montgomery. Six games is a small sample, so don't treat it as a projection. But it shows what Gibbs looks like when he's the clear lead back, and that's the role he's stepping into.
One more variable: Drew Petzing is Detroit's offensive coordinator, and we won't know exactly how he uses Gibbs without Montgomery until real games are played. The financial commitment, though, makes it hard to imagine Gibbs' role shrinking.
The Case for Bijan: Volume and a Thinner Depth Chart
Bijan's argument is simpler: nobody touches the ball more. Last season he had 366 combined carries and catches, more than 21 touches per game, and he was a full-time receiver as well as a runner. That kind of usage gives him an extremely high floor.
Atlanta's backfield also changed. Tyler Allgeier, Bijan's backup, left for the Cardinals. The Falcons signed Brian Robinson to replace him. Like Pacheco in Detroit, Robinson arrives as a complement, and Atlanta's new contract makes clear whose backfield it is.
The main question with Bijan is touchdowns. He scored 11 last year on more than 2,000 scrimmage yards. If he converts more of that yardage into scores, he can finish as the RB1 without changing anything else about his game.
The quarterback situation is the other variable. Atlanta signed Tua Tagovailoa in March after Miami released him, to compete with Michael Penix Jr. A shaky quarterback can lower a team's scoring chances, but it can also force a team to lean even harder on its best player. For Bijan, that probably means more volume, not less.
What the Draft Market Says
Drafters already lean Gibbs, but narrowly. In CBS Sports' PPR average draft position data at the end of July, Gibbs was going at 1.62 and Bijan at 1.94. Both are consistently the first two picks. The disagreement is only about the order.
That matters for a practical reason. If you pick first, you get your choice. If you pick second, you'll almost always get whichever one is left. In most drafts this summer, picking 1.02 gets you essentially the same value as picking 1.01. Don't overpay to move up.
How Format Changes the Answer
The right pick isn't the same in every league type. Here's how to think about it.
Season-Long Redraft (PPR)
Slight edge to Gibbs. His touchdown production and the Montgomery trade give him the higher ceiling, and in a weekly head-to-head league, ceiling wins you weeks. If you're risk-averse and want the safest weekly floor, Bijan is a perfectly defensible choice.
Best Ball Tournaments
Gibbs again, for a different reason. Best ball rewards spike weeks, and Gibbs' touchdown-heavy profile produces more of them. If you're drafting in Underdog's Best Ball Mania VII, remember that most of the prize money is paid in Week 17, so you need players capable of huge single-game scores. Our BBM VII strategy guide explains why that changes how you draft.
That said, best ball is also where diversification matters most. If you're entering multiple teams, take both. Don't let one player decide your entire portfolio.
Daily Fantasy
This decision is a summer question, not a DFS question. In daily fantasy you'll choose between them week to week based on price, matchup and game total. Both will be among the most expensive running backs on the board most weeks, and both will be popular. For a refresher on picking spots, our best DFS site for NFL guide is a good place to start before the season opens.
How to Build Around Your Pick
Taking an elite running back first shapes everything that comes after it. A few principles hold whichever one you land.
- Lean receiver in Rounds 2 and 3. With a workhorse back in hand, you have room to load up on pass catchers before the receiver tiers thin out.
- Draft the backup you'd actually start. Pacheco in Detroit and Brian Robinson in Atlanta are the obvious insurance picks. You don't need to reach, but know where they're going in your league so you can grab them at the right price.
- Think about stacks in best ball. Pairing a running back with his own quarterback is less common than a QB-receiver stack, but a high-scoring offense lifts everyone in it. If you can get Detroit's or Atlanta's passing game at value later, the correlation helps.
The point isn't to follow a script. It's to make sure your first pick and your next ten picks are working toward the same roster, not against each other.
The Risks for Both
Neither pick is risk-free, and you should go in clear-eyed.
- Missed practice time. Both players sat out part of camp while they waited on contracts. That's mostly a non-issue for established veterans, but it's worth watching how quickly they're integrated into the offense in the next few weeks.
- New coordinators and quarterbacks. Detroit is replacing Montgomery's touches. Atlanta has a quarterback competition. Change brings uncertainty.
- Running back injury risk. This is true of every back. It's one reason some drafters prefer an elite receiver at 1.01. If you're in that camp, you won't go far wrong, but you'll be passing on two of the most productive players in football.
The Bottom Line
This week's contracts removed the last question mark from the top of the board. Both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are signed and paid to be the focal points of their offenses.
If you have the first pick, our lean is Gibbs. He's more efficient per touch, he scores more touchdowns, and Montgomery's departure opens up the workload he's never had. Bijan is the volume-and-floor alternative, and nobody should talk you out of him if that's what you value.
The important thing is to get one of them. If you're drafting best ball on Underdog, both are worth owning across a portfolio of entries. If you're planning for daily fantasy once Week 1 arrives, DraftKings will price them week to week. Either way, this is the rare first-round decision where both answers are good ones.