Build around Yordan Álvarez and Jordan Walker, stack the concentrated power in Chicago (White Sox) and with the Athletics, and pay for strikeouts with Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease. Target the Angels' strikeout-prone lineup, the Padres' last-place offense, the Rockies' rotation and the Royals' bullpen. Don't count on Aaron Judge until his new imaging comes back.
What the Break Actually Told Us
The All-Star break is mostly a show, but it gave us three things that matter for DFS.
1. Jordan Walker's power is real. Walker won the Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night, beating Kyle Schwarber 12-11 in the final with six straight homers to finish, according to NBC10 Philadelphia. He's the first Cardinal ever to win it. In the first round, 10 of his 13 homers went at least 420 feet. Derby swings aren't game swings, but they back up what his season line already shows. More on that below.
2. Pitching controlled the All-Star Game. The AL won 4-0, the first All-Star shutout since 2013, per CBS Sports. Eleven AL pitchers allowed three hits and two walks and struck out 15. Cody Bellinger won MVP with a two-run single off Cristopher Sánchez in the first inning. He was in the lineup as an injury replacement for Aaron Judge.
3. Judge's timeline is still open. Judge is out with a rib injury. Before the break, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Judge would get new imaging during the break. "I don't think we're anticipating it's coming back clean," Cashman said, per NBC Sports. "I think we're anticipating and hopeful that it's showing the healing process." Judge hadn't started baseball activities. Don't build lineups as if he's coming back this weekend. Watch for the imaging results and a ramp-up plan.
The Bats to Build Around
All stats below are first-half numbers from FOX Sports' All-Star break review, unless noted.
Yordan Álvarez, Astros
Álvarez leads MLB in slugging (.633), on-base percentage (.426) and OPS (1.059), and his 31 home runs lead the AL. He gets on base and hits for power, which means fantasy points from both. In a tournament, his price is the question. It's never whether he can pay it off.
Jordan Walker, Cardinals
Walker leads MLB with 74 RBIs and has a career-high 22 home runs, with a .294/.354/.532 slash line. He's a first-time All-Star and the new Derby champion.
The White Sox Power Core
The surprise team of the first half leads the AL Central at 50-45 and ranks fourth in MLB with 129 home runs. Three infielders account for 64 of them: Colson Montgomery (23), Miguel Rojas (21) and Munetaka Murakami (20). When a team's power is concentrated in a few hitters like this, stacking them gives you correlated upside. If one hits a homer, there's a good chance the others are on base or coming up next.
The Athletics' Power Pair
Catcher Shea Langeliers has 21 homers and first baseman Nick Kurtz has 20. Power from the catcher spot is especially valuable on sites that require you to roster one, because the position is usually thin.
Contact Hitters With a Safe Floor
Yandy Díaz leads the AL with a .322 average for the Rays, who have the AL's best record (56-38). Luis Arráez is second in MLB with 119 hits. Corbin Carroll leads MLB with 10 triples. These players don't win tournaments by themselves, but they give you a solid floor in cash games.
Lineups That Score Runs in Bunches
Team-level numbers matter in MLB DFS because stacking is how tournaments are won. Look at which offenses produce:
- Pirates and Nationals: Tied for the most runs in MLB (516). Pittsburgh leads the league with a .263 average and 886 hits. Washington leads in slugging (.435).
- Yankees: MLB-best 142 home runs.
- Twins: Sixth in runs (471), even though FOX Sports says they aren't in the playoff picture. Bad teams can still be good stacks.
- Orioles: Only 46-51, but first in MLB in average exit velocity (90.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (42.9%). Hitting the ball that hard while losing is the kind of gap DFS players can take advantage of. The results may catch up to the contact quality, and the team's record keeps public interest low.
On the other side, some offenses are hard to trust. The Padres are last in MLB in runs (379), hits, batting average, on-base percentage (.302) and OPS (.672). The Mets and Phillies are tied for 28th with a .303 team OBP. The Red Sox won their last nine games before the break, but they're last in baseball with 85 home runs. Their offense relies on stringing hits together, not power.
Pitchers Worth Paying Up For
In MLB DFS, your starting pitchers set the floor for your whole lineup. Three arms stood out in the first half.
- Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers: 1.62 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 167 strikeouts and a .148 opponent batting average. FOX Sports says all four of those numbers lead MLB. Milwaukee's rotation has the best ERA in baseball at 3.40.
- Dylan Cease, Blue Jays: 2.56 ERA and 148 strikeouts in 98⅓ innings, with an MLB-best 13.55 strikeouts per nine. Strikeouts are the most reliable source of points for pitchers, and nobody gets them at a higher rate.
- Chase Burns, Reds: 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 102⅔ innings in his first full MLB season, plus an All-Star selection.
One thing to watch: Cease's team is slumping. FOX Sports describes the defending AL champion Blue Jays that way. Pitcher wins are part of DFS scoring on most sites, and they depend partly on run support. Cease's strikeouts are his own, but some of his win chances aren't.
Matchups to Target
These are the first-half weaknesses worth targeting:
- Angels hitters strike out the most. Their 917 strikeouts are the most in the league. A high-strikeout pitcher facing the Angels is one of the easiest starting points on any slate.
- Padres hitters are the weakest offense. Last in runs and OPS makes San Diego a target for opposing pitchers.
- Rockies starters have the worst rotation ERA. At 5.90, Colorado's rotation ERA is last in MLB. FOX Sports notes that Coors Field is part of the story, but the number is still the worst in the sport. Hitters facing Rockies starters deserve a look.
- The Royals' bullpen is the worst in MLB. Its 5.33 ERA ranks last. Late innings against Kansas City are where opposing hitters can add points.
- The Nationals blow late leads. Washington has an MLB-high 27 blown saves, and the all-time record is 37. That's late-game scoring for opposing lineups.
On the reliever side, Guardians closer Cade Smith leads MLB with 28 saves. Closers are rarely rostered in classic DFS, but on pick'em-style apps and in season-long leagues, that kind of role security is worth noting.
The Standings Context That Changes Playing Time
The second half isn't just baseball. It's also the run-up to the trade deadline, which MLB set for Monday, August 3 at 6 p.m. ET, per MLB Trade Rumors. That's the latest deadline the current rules allow. Over the next two-plus weeks, contenders and sellers will decide which way they're going, and lineups and rotations can change.
Here's where the races stand at the break, per FOX Sports:
- Dodgers: MLB-best 61 wins.
- Rays: AL-best 56-38.
- Braves: Lead the NL East at 55-40, but lost 19 of their last 29 games before the break.
- Cubs: First NL wild card at 54-42. The Marlins hold the third NL wild card at 52-45. The Pirates are 50-47.
- Rangers: Lead the AL West at 49-47, with the Mariners (48-49) just 1.5 games back.
- Red Sox: A half-game out of the third AL wild card after nine straight wins.
- Phillies: 45-24 under interim manager Don Mattingly after firing Rob Thomson following a 9-19 start.
- Tigers: 44-52, after back-to-back ALDS appearances.
Why does this matter for DFS? Teams that fall out of the race tend to give more playing time to young players, and teams that buy at the deadline can shuffle lineups. Every daily lineup should start with a check of the confirmed batting orders. That's never been more true than in the weeks around the deadline.
How to Approach the First Week Back
The first few days after the break are a little unusual. Pitchers come off extra rest, and rotations can get reshuffled. That makes the first week a good time to stay disciplined.
- Lean on season-long skill, not the Derby. Walker and Álvarez are strong plays because of four months of production, not one night in Philadelphia.
- Stack correlated power. The White Sox and Athletics have power concentrated in a few hitters. The Yankees have depth even without Judge.
- Pay for strikeouts. Misiorowski and Cease are the clearest strikeout sources in the sport.
- Use the weak spots. Target the Angels' strikeouts, the Padres' bats, the Rockies' rotation and the late innings against Kansas City and Washington.
- Use late swap. MLB slates often stretch from the early evening to late at night. Our late swap guide explains how to react when a scratch or rainout hits after lock.
And keep your bankroll in proportion. Baseball has more single-game variance than any other DFS sport. One rainout or one bad inning can wreck a great lineup. Our 1% bankroll rule is built for exactly that.
The Bottom Line
The break confirmed what the first half suggested. Yordan Álvarez is the best hitter in the sport. Jordan Walker's breakout is backed up by the numbers. The White Sox and Athletics have concentrated power worth stacking. Misiorowski and Cease are the strikeout pitchers to pay for. The Angels, Padres, Rockies and Royals' bullpen are the weaknesses to target. Keep an eye on Judge's imaging and the August 3 deadline, because both can change who's in your lineups.
If you want the biggest MLB tournaments, DraftKings is the place to play the second half. If you want a cleaner start to daily baseball, FanDuel is a strong choice. Both are available in eligible states — check your state before you sign up.