US Open Without Sinner:
Tennis Pick'em Strategy for Flushing

The Sinner News and What It Does to the Draw

On August 21, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner pulled out of the US Open with a right knee problem. He said he had "realized that I still need more time to recover from my right knee issue." That's a big hole in the men's field: the world No. 1 won't be in New York, and every seed below him moves a step closer to the trophy.

Thursday's draw filled in the rest. Main-draw play runs Sunday, August 30 through Sunday, September 13. Here's how the top of the men's side shakes out:

• No. 1 Alexander Zverev opens against Lorenzo Sonego. He won his first major at Roland Garros this year, reached the Wimbledon final and is 18-2 at Grand Slams in 2026. He's seeded to meet No. 6 Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals.
• No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz opens his title defense against Roman Safiullin. He won his second US Open last year — but this is his first tournament after four months out with a wrist injury.
• No. 3 Félix Auger-Aliassime faces Rinky Hijikata.
• No. 4 Novak Djokovic faces Mariano Navone and sits in Alcaraz's half, with a potential semifinal between the two.
• Americans: Taylor Fritz, the 2024 finalist, draws 18-year-old Darwin Blanch. Ben Shelton, the world No. 9, gets Tallon Griekspoor. Learner Tien is the No. 14 seed.

One more form note: Arthur Fils won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati on August 23, beating Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 in the final.

The Women's Draw

• No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is chasing a third straight US Open title — something no woman has done since Serena Williams (2012–14). Her projected quarterfinal is No. 7 Karolína Muchová, with No. 3 Jessica Pegula, the 2024 finalist, a projected semifinal.
• No. 2 Elena Rybakina leads a loaded bottom quarter that also holds No. 8 Iga Świątek, the Toronto champion this summer, plus Naomi Osaka and Madison Keys.
• No. 4 Coco Gauff and No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, this year's Roland Garros champion, are the top seeds in the third quarter.
• Also in the field: Wimbledon champion Linda Nosková and No. 17 seed Alexandra Eala.

How Tennis Pick'em Works

Tennis props on PrizePicks cover categories like Total Games, Total Games Won, Total Sets, Aces, Break Points Won, Double Faults, Total Tie Breaks and Fantasy Score. You pick More or Less on each projection and combine picks into an entry. Underdog's Pick'em works the same way when it lists tennis — pick Higher or Lower and combine.

New for this US Open: PrizePicks now lets you combine one tennis match-winner Team Pick with two to five Player Picks — from any sport — in a single lineup. Two catches. These lineups are Power Play only, so every pick has to hit. And they're only live where both tennis Player Picks and Team Picks are offered — PrizePicks' own fine print classifies Team Picks as event contracts — so check the app in your state.

Five Pick'em Angles for Flushing

1. Best-of-five changes everything on the men's side

Men play best-of-five at the US Open; women play best-of-three. That makes men's total-games and total-sets projections much wider. A heavy favorite who wins in straight sets can come in well under a games line — but one lost set adds a whole extra set of games. Before taking Less on a men's games total, ask yourself honestly how likely the favorite is to drop a set, not just whether he wins.

2. Rust is real — and the lines know it

Alcaraz hasn't played a tournament in four months. That doesn't mean fade him; it means his early-round projections carry more uncertainty than usual. Uncertainty cuts both ways. If you have a strong opinion about how quickly he finds his level, early rounds are where it's priced. If you don't, there's no rule that says you have to play him at all.

3. Aces are about the matchup, not just the server

Ace props depend on two players: the server and the returner. A big server against an elite returner will hit fewer aces than against a weak returner. Ace totals also scale with how long the match goes — more service games, more chances. So a More on aces quietly correlates with a long match. Pair it with a More on total games and you're building one story, which is fine if that's your read.

4. Don't stack contradictions

Total Games Won for one player and Total Games for the match are tightly linked. Taking More on a player's games won and Less on the match's total games can work — that's a blowout read — but taking More on both players' games won is a long-match bet doubled up. Know which outcome each entry needs.

5. Respect the retirement rules

Tennis has something most sports don't: a player can retire mid-match. Every pick'em platform has its own rules for how a retirement or walkover grades or voids a projection, and they're not identical. Read them before you build entries around players with injury questions — and this year, that list starts with a defending champion coming back from a wrist injury.

Women's Draw: Shorter Matches, Different Math

Best-of-three makes women's props more volatile on a per-set basis. One break of serve can decide a set, and a 6-4, 6-4 match and a 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 match produce very different games totals. A few principles:

• Top seeds in early rounds: straight-set wins are common, so games projections for heavy favorites are typically set low. The value question is whether the underdog can hold serve enough to push the total.
• Strong servers: ace props on the women's side swing a lot from match to match. Treat them as matchup props, not reputation props.
• Big quarters: Rybakina's quarter — with Świątek, Osaka and Keys — means several high-quality matches early. Competitive matches tend to push games totals up, so don't assume every seed cruises.

Using the New Team + Player Combos Without Overreaching

The new PrizePicks combos are genuinely useful for one specific kind of read: when you think a player wins and you have a view on how. A favorite you expect to dominate is a natural match-winner pick, and his games won or aces are the player picks that tell the same story.

That correlation is the point — and the risk. If the favorite wins, several legs tend to hit together. If he loses, they tend to miss together. Since these lineups are Power Play only, there's no partial payout to soften a bad day. Three rules we'd follow:

• Keep it short. One Team Pick plus two Player Picks is plenty. Every extra leg multiplies the chance that something goes wrong.
• Mix in independence on purpose. Because the Player Picks can come from any sport, you can pair a tennis match-winner read with a pick from a completely different game. That doesn't add correlation, but it doesn't add hidden double exposure either.
• Skip players with health questions. A retirement can sink the match-winner leg and leave the player legs in limbo. Combos are for your highest-confidence reads, not your longshots.

PrizePicks vs. Underdog for the US Open

Our honest take: if you're a tennis-first player, open both apps. The value of a second account isn't the welcome bonus, it's the line. When both apps list the same player's projection, they won't always match — and half a game or one ace is often the whole edge in tennis.

• PrizePicks has the deepest tennis stat menu we've seen and, as of this week, the new tennis Team + Player combos for match-winner reads.
• Underdog is the natural second screen for line shopping, and it's where you'll want to be anyway once NFL season starts if you play best ball.

For a deeper look at how the two apps' payouts compare, see our PrizePicks vs Underdog payout breakdown. And if you played golf pick'em this week, our TOUR Championship guide uses the same round-by-round approach.

Mistakes to Avoid

• Picking on reputation. A name is not a projection. Read the matchup.
• Ignoring format. Best-of-five and best-of-three are different sports for props. Don't use the same instincts for both.
• Overloading 5- and 6-pick entries. Bigger entries pay more because they hit far less often. In a sport with retirements and five-set swings, smaller entries keep you alive longer.
• Chasing. A bad opening weekend is not a reason to raise your stakes in week two. Stick to a fixed slice of your bankroll — see our 1% rule.

The Bottom Line

Sinner's withdrawal leaves the men's draw more open than usual: Zverev is the top seed, Alcaraz is the defending champion coming off four months away, and Djokovic lurks in Alcaraz's half. On the women's side, Sabalenka chases a three-peat while the bottom half is stacked.

For pick'em, the edge comes from respecting the format — best-of-five math, matchup-driven aces, retirement rules — and from shopping lines across apps. Play it round by round, keep entries small, and let the two weeks come to you.