Round 1 is four best-of-three series with little separating the seeds. Start every pick with playoff minutes, read each matchup's pace and defense, keep entries small and line-shop between PrizePicks and Underdog.
The Bracket Is Set
The regular season is over and the eight-team field is set. Round 1 is best-of-three, the top four seeds host, and play starts Sunday, September 27. Here are the matchups, with final regular-season records:
| Matchup | Higher Seed | Lower Seed |
|---|---|---|
| (1) vs (8) | Minnesota Lynx, 33-11 | New York Liberty, 26-18 |
| (2) vs (7) | Golden State Valkyries, 32-12 | Dallas Wings, 27-17 |
| (3) vs (6) | Las Vegas Aces, 31-13 | Indiana Fever, 28-16 |
| (4) vs (5) | Atlanta Dream, 30-14 | Washington Mystics, 28-16 |
Look at the spread of those records. Only seven games separate the top seed from the eighth. This isn't a bracket with obvious first-round walkovers, and that matters for props: competitive series tend to keep starters on the floor.
How Playoff Props Differ From the Regular Season
Before the matchups, three things change when the playoffs start.
- Rotations shrink. Coaches tighten up in a short series. Stars and starters tend to play more minutes, while deep-bench players can disappear. Minutes are the foundation of every counting stat, so this is the biggest single adjustment.
- Every game is a scouting report. In a best-of-three, Game 2 comes right after Game 1, and both teams adjust. Projections for Game 2 will reflect what happened in Game 1. Your edge is in thinking about why it happened, not just that it did.
- Small samples cut both ways. A series can be over in two games. One cold shooting night can sink a points pick. Keep your entries small and spread across games instead of loading up on one.
Round 1 Matchups: What Matters for Props
All stats below are 2026 regular-season per-game averages.
(1) Minnesota vs. (8) New York
Minnesota earned the top seed at 33-11, scoring 90.8 points per game and allowing 83.7. Olivia Miles led the Lynx at 19.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists — a stat line that gives you three different prop angles. Kayla McBride added 17.6 points with 2.9 made threes per game, Natasha Howard put up 14.8 points and 7.6 rebounds, and Courtney Williams chipped in 13.8 points.
New York scored 89.6 and allowed 86.4. Breanna Stewart averaged 20.8 points and 8.3 rebounds. Jonquel Jones added 14.5 points and 9.1 rebounds. Sabrina Ionescu averaged 14.6 points but appeared in 31 games, so check her status before you build around her.
Props angle: both teams' frontcourts produce rebounds. Stewart and Jones against Howard is a matchup where rebounding projections are worth a close look in both directions.
(2) Golden State vs. (7) Dallas
Golden State's calling card is defense. The Valkyries allowed 75.1 points per game, the fewest of any team in the field. Their scoring is spread out: Gabby Williams averaged 14.4 points, Janelle Salaun 12.7 and Veronica Burton 12.2 with 5.7 assists.
Dallas scored 89.4 and allowed 85.3. Paige Bueckers averaged 20.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists. Arike Ogunbowale added 15.3 points. Jessica Shepard put up 14.5 points, 11.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists — the kind of all-around line that makes her fantasy score projection interesting.
Props angle: this is the series where the defense question matters most. Dallas's scorers averaged their numbers against the whole league, and Golden State gave up fewer points than any other playoff team. That doesn't automatically mean Less — projections should already account for the matchup — but it's the first thing to check.
(3) Las Vegas vs. (6) Indiana
This is the highest-scoring matchup on the board. Indiana scored 96.0 points per game, the most of any team in the field. Las Vegas scored 91.5 and allowed 85.8.
A'ja Wilson averaged 26.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists for the Aces. Jackie Young added 18.9 points and 6.8 assists, and Chelsea Gray averaged 12.0 points and 6.7 assists.
For Indiana, Kelsey Mitchell averaged 24.7 points with 3.1 made threes per game. Caitlin Clark averaged 22.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists with 2.9 made threes in 40 games. Aliyah Boston put up 16.1 points and 8.0 rebounds.
Props angle: pace and volume. Two teams that score this much mean more possessions, and more possessions mean more chances for points, assists and threes. If you like the over on this series, that view runs through several players at once — which is useful, but it's also concentrated risk.
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Washington
Atlanta scored 91.3 and allowed 84.5. Washington scored 84.0 and allowed 82.7. On paper, this looks like the grind-it-out series of the first round.
Allisha Gray led the Dream at 19.0 points. Rhyne Howard averaged 17.7 with 3.1 made threes, and Angel Reese put up 16.4 points and 12.1 rebounds. For Washington, Shakira Austin averaged 17.0 points and 9.5 rebounds, Sonia Citron 16.8 points, and Kiki Iriafen 15.3 points and 9.6 rebounds.
Props angle: rebounds. Reese, Austin and Iriafen are all near or above nine boards a game. In a lower-scoring series, there are more missed shots to rebound. That's the matchup to study for rebounding projections.
Matching Stat Types to Series
Each series has a different personality, and the smartest entries pick the stat that fits the game instead of forcing the same prop everywhere. Here's a quick cheat sheet based on regular-season numbers:
| Series | Profile | Stats to Study First |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota vs. New York | Balanced, two strong frontcourts | Rebounds; Miles's assists |
| Golden State vs. Dallas | Best defense in the field vs. a star guard | Bueckers points; Shepard fantasy score |
| Las Vegas vs. Indiana | Highest-scoring matchup | Points, assists, made threes |
| Atlanta vs. Washington | Lower-scoring, physical | Rebounds for Reese, Austin, Iriafen |
None of this tells you which side of a projection to take. The lines are set by people who have the same numbers. What it does tell you is where to spend your research time — and where a small edge in your read is most likely to matter.
One more habit worth building: write down why you made each pick before the game starts. When the series is over, you'll know whether you were right for the right reasons, or just lucky.
Using PrizePicks' New Options in the Playoffs
Two recent PrizePicks changes are relevant to WNBA playoff entries.
Less picks on Demons and Goblins. As of early September, PrizePicks expanded Less picks on its Demon and Goblin projections to NFL, MLB and WNBA. Demons are higher-than-standard lines with bigger payouts; Goblins are lower lines with smaller payouts. Being able to take Less on them gives you more ways to express a view — for example, Less on a Demon line for a player you think will be limited by a tough defensive matchup. PrizePicks notes that Demons are the only way to reach its maximum 2000x payout. Treat that as a ceiling, not a target.
2-Pick Flex. In mid-September, PrizePicks added a 2-Pick Flex on standard projections: hit both picks and you get 2x, hit one and you get 0.5x back. Check in the app which sports and projections are eligible in your state. For playoff games with this much uncertainty, a smaller entry that softens a miss is worth considering over a long Power Play.
For how PrizePicks' payouts compare to Underdog's, see our pick'em payout breakdown.
PrizePicks vs. Underdog for WNBA Playoffs
Our honest take is the same one we give for every sport: have both, and compare lines. When the same player's points or rebounds projection is a half-point different between apps, the better number is free value.
- PrizePicks gives you the most entry types to work with right now, including the newly expanded Less picks on WNBA Demons and Goblins.
- Underdog is the natural second board for line shopping, and if you're already playing football there, adding WNBA picks takes a minute. Our Underdog vs PrizePicks comparison covers the differences in detail.
State availability varies by app and by product, so check what's offered where you live before you deposit.
Mistakes to Avoid
- Using season averages blindly. Playoff minutes are different. Adjust for rotation changes, not just the stat line.
- Ignoring injury and availability news. Check every player's status close to tip-off. A late scratch changes everyone else's role, too.
- Overreacting to Game 1. One game is one game. Ask whether a big performance came from more minutes and shots — which can repeat — or hot shooting, which may not.
- Going too big. Six-pick entries pay more because they rarely hit. In a short series, smaller entries keep you in the game. Stick to a fixed slice of your bankroll — see our 1% rule.
The Bottom Line
Round 1 starts Sunday with four best-of-three series and only seven games separating the top seed from the eighth. Minnesota has the best record, Golden State has the best defense, Indiana has the best offense, and Atlanta and Washington look like a rebounding battle.
For pick'em, start with minutes, read each matchup on its own terms, and line-shop between PrizePicks and Underdog. Keep entries small — a best-of-three series doesn't leave much room for error.