Start with the two games with the highest totals: Buccaneers at Bengals (50.5) and Saints at Lions (49.5). Use injury-driven value like Michael Mayer at $2,900 to afford the stars. In cash games, play Gibbs. In tournaments, decide on purpose whether you're with the crowd on Gibbs or against it, then get different elsewhere.
What We Learned From the First Two Games
The season opened Wednesday night, and it was ugly for fantasy. The Seahawks beat the Patriots 13-10 in a game with very little scoring. The bigger story was Sam Darnold, who left on the opening drive with a hip injury after taking a sack. Drew Lock came in and went 16 of 22 for 187 yards and a touchdown. Jaxon Smith-Njigba made the play of the night, a 45-yard catch-and-run touchdown that tied the game at 10.
New England's side was rough. Drake Maye threw for 178 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions, though he added 47 rushing yards on seven carries. A.J. Brown hurt his ankle in the third quarter, and the Patriots have since placed him on injured reserve with a high-ankle sprain. His earliest return is Week 6.
On Thursday, the 49ers beat the Rams 27-7 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in the NFL's first regular-season game in Australia. Brock Purdy completed 25 of 34 passes for 205 yards and three touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey ran 10 times for 68 yards, while rookie Kaelon Black added 65 yards on 14 carries. Mike Evans made his 49ers debut. Matthew Stafford struggled, going 4 of 11 in the first half with an interception on a deep ball intended for Puka Nacua.
Two games is a tiny sample. But neither turned into a shootout: the two games produced 23 and 34 total points. That's worth keeping in mind on Sunday.
The Main Slate: Where the Points Should Be
DraftKings' Sunday main slate has 12 games. As of Saturday, according to Forbes, these were the five with the highest totals:
| Game | Favorite | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Bengals | Bengals −3.5 | 50.5 |
| Saints at Lions | Lions −7 | 49.5 |
| Bears at Panthers | Bears −3 | 47.5 |
| Ravens at Colts | Ravens −3.5 | 47.5 |
| Cardinals at Chargers | Chargers −9.5 | 47.5 |
The Chargers have the highest implied team total on the slate. That's what a 9.5-point home favorite with a total in the high 40s looks like. Lines move, so check the current numbers before contests start on Sunday. If you're new to using betting lines this way, our guide to Vegas lines for DFS explains how to turn a spread and total into a team projection.
Buccaneers at Bengals: The Top Stack
This is the highest total on the slate, and both passing games are healthy. Saturday's injury report confirmed that Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will both play for Cincinnati. On the Tampa Bay side, Emeka Egbuka was a full participant and projects as a WR2 with WR1 upside, while Jalen McMillan and Sean Tucker are doubtful.
Chase is $7,800 on DraftKings and Tee Higgins is $6,300. Baker Mayfield is $5,900. Forbes highlighted Mayfield's Week 1 record in Tampa: 3-0, with nine touchdowns, no interceptions and a 114.5 passer rating. Joe Burrow's Week 1 history is weaker, at 2-4 with five touchdowns and five interceptions.
Projected ownership, per One Week Season numbers cited by Forbes, has Chase around 30% and Mayfield under 5%. That's a useful split for tournaments. A Mayfield stack with a Bengals bring-back gives you the slate's best game environment without following the crowd.
Saints at Lions: Gibbs and the Chalk Question
Jahmyr Gibbs is $8,000 on DraftKings and projects at around 45% ownership according to One Week Season, the heaviest chalk in Forbes' breakdown. That makes sense. Detroit is a seven-point home favorite in a game with a 49.5 total, and Gibbs just signed the richest running back contract in the league. Isiah Pacheco is on injured reserve, which leaves Jacob Saylors and Sione Vaki behind Gibbs on the depth chart.
The New Orleans side is interesting, too. Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve, which should funnel more targets to Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson. Johnson is just $3,700, and he caught 77 passes on 102 targets last season, per Forbes. Alvin Kamara is questionable, and if he sits, Travis Etienne should see a bigger role. Tyler Shough is $5,600 at quarterback.
How to Handle Gibbs
- Cash games: Play him. The point of cash games is to beat half the field, and when the heaviest chalk is also one of the safest plays, fading him puts you on the wrong side of most outcomes.
- Tournaments: Make a deliberate choice. If you play Gibbs, differentiate the rest of your lineup. If you fade him, you're betting that nearly half the field has a bad week from their most expensive running back. That's a legitimate bet, but go in knowing the risk.
Injury-Driven Value: Where to Save Salary
Forbes noted that Week 1 prices were established in July. Every injury since then has created a mispriced player somewhere. These are the spots that stood out on Saturday's report.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders ($2,900)
Brock Bowers had a meniscus trim and is out for a game or two. That moves Michael Mayer into a starting tight end role at near-minimum salary. One Week Season projects him around 32% owned, so he isn't a secret, but he's one of the cleanest ways to free up money for Gibbs or a Bengals stack. Ashton Jeanty plays and should be the Raiders' clear lead back, and rookie Mike Washington is a FLEX option.
Running Back Openings
- Packers vs. Vikings: Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exempt list, so MarShawn Lloyd should lead the backfield.
- Cowboys vs. Giants: Malik Davis is on injured reserve, leaving Javonte Williams as the clear RB1.
- Bills vs. Texans: Ty Johnson is questionable, which helps James Cook.
- Cardinals at Chargers: Rookie Jeremiyah Love is a game-day decision, and Tyler Allgeier is listed as the starter. Check inactives before you commit to either.
- Panthers vs. Bears: Jonathon Brooks is off the injury report and Chuba Hubbard was a full participant. Expect a timeshare, which makes both hard to trust.
Pass-Catcher Openings
- Bears at Panthers: Rome Odunze is questionable with a calf injury. If he sits, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland ($5,300) benefit.
- Texans vs. Bills: Tank Dell is on injured reserve. Jaylin Noel moves into the slot, and newly acquired Kayshon Boutte plays outside opposite Nico Collins.
- Giants vs. Cowboys: Malik Nabers is questionable in his return from an ACL injury, and a snap count is possible. Be careful in cash games.
Cardinals at Chargers: The Contrarian Option
The Chargers' implied total makes them an obvious target. Omarion Hampton is the starter at $6,800 and projects around 13% owned. Justin Herbert is $6,100 and around 10%. Keaton Mitchell will also play, which could cut into Hampton's work a bit.
The more interesting tournament angle is the Arizona side. Forbes pointed out that the 2025 Cardinals averaged a league-leading 41.6 pass plays per game with Jacoby Brissett under center, mostly because they were often trailing. As 9.5-point underdogs, they could be trailing again. Brissett is $5,100 with projected ownership under 2%, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is $5,000. That's a cheap, low-owned stack built on a realistic game script.
Other Games to Know
- Ravens at Colts (47.5): Zay Flowers will play. Lamar Jackson is $6,800. Baltimore has a new head coach in Jesse Minter and a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle, so there's real uncertainty about the offense. For Indianapolis, Alec Pierce plays.
- Falcons vs. Steelers: Michael Penix Jr. is inactive and Tua Tagovailoa is out with an oblique injury, so Cooper Rush starts. Expect Atlanta to lean on Bijan Robinson.
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: Patrick Mahomes is off the injury report and will play. Kenneth Walker is expected to be a focal point. Left tackle Josh Simmons is out.
- Dolphins vs. Raiders: Chris Bell starts with no pitch count.
- Jets vs. Titans: Breece Hall was a full participant.
- Commanders vs. Eagles: Jacory Croskey-Merritt plays. Philadelphia tight end Eli Stowers is questionable.
- Jaguars: LeQuint Allen Jr. is questionable.
Not every game above is on the 12-game main slate. Check your contest's game list before you build.
A Sample Week 1 Approach
Here's how the pieces above can fit together on DraftKings' $50,000 salary cap. This isn't a single recommended lineup. It's a framework.
- Pick your game. Start with Buccaneers–Bengals or Saints–Lions. Build a quarterback stack with at least one pass catcher, and add a bring-back from the other side.
- Decide on Gibbs. In cash, he's in. In tournaments, choose deliberately and build around the choice.
- Use the injury value. Mayer at $2,900 or Juwan Johnson at $3,700 saves money at tight end. Running backs like MarShawn Lloyd or Javonte Williams in new lead roles can fill out the rest.
- Get different in one place. In tournaments, one low-owned piece, like a Brissett–Harrison stack or Mayfield over Burrow, can separate you from the field.
For more on building correlated lineups, our NFL DFS stacking guide covers the mechanics. Several of the players above showed up in our late-August ADP check, and Gibbs was the subject of our 1.01 debate.
Don't Forget Late Swap
With this many questionable players, Sunday morning will bring news. Inactives come out shortly before kickoff, and the early games will tell you a lot about the late ones.
Put your uncertain players in late-game roster slots when you can, so you can swap them out if they're ruled out. Our late swap guide explains how to set up your lineup for flexibility.
The Bottom Line
The first two games were low-scoring, and Week 1 has a history of going under. That's a reason to be selective, not a reason to stay away.
Focus on the two games with the highest totals, Buccaneers–Bengals and Saints–Lions. Play Gibbs in cash and make a deliberate call on him in tournaments. Use the injury value at tight end and running back to fit the stars, and get different in at least one spot if you're chasing a big prize. Check inactives before kickoff and use late swap if you need to.
DraftKings has the biggest Sunday tournaments and the deepest contest lineup. FanDuel is the simpler place to start if this is your first DFS season. Both operate in eligible states, so check your state before you sign up. Set a budget for the week and stick to it.